Home Price Growth Slowed in July per Case Shiller Index

By Mark Lieberman

Managing Director and Senior Economist

Highlights:

  • Case Shiller CoreLogic 10- and 20-city indices each GREW in July but at the slowest rate since January;
  • The 10-city index was UP 0.24 percent or 0.54 points to 227.0; the 20-city index grew 0.28 percent or 0.59 points, to 213.76;
  • The Case Schiller national index GREW 0.45 percent or 0.91 points to 205.35;
  • Index ROSE in 18 of the 20 cities surveyed in July; Prices were flat month-month in San Diego and Seattle;
  • Year-year prices were UP in all 20 cities, but the year-year increase slowed in 15 cities.

Trends:

  • The 20-city index remained above its previous peak (206.52 in July 2006)
  • The National Index set a record high for the 19th straight month;
  • 10-city index was above its previous record high, 226.29 (June 2006)

Data Source: S&P Case Schiller/Core Logic

Image result for home prices

Growth in home values, measured by the Case Shiller Core Logic Home Price Index slowed in July as the reality of the new tax law which capped some of the tax advantages to homeownership began to sink in.

 

Whatever increase there was may have been the result more of tight home sale inventories affording buyers less of a choice.

According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors, the inventory of homes for has averaged 1.72 million per month this year, down from 1.80 million per month last year and 1.97 million per month in 2016.

Values rose in July in all four Census regions, increasing 0.6 percent in the Midwest, 0.4 percent in the West and 0.3 percent in the South and just 0.1 percent in the Northeast. But prices grew more slowly in July than in June in 15 of the cities surveyed.

According to Case-Schiller, prices rose more than 0.5 percent from June to July in seven cities. From May to June, prices increased by more than 0.5 percent in 18 cities. Price gains in July were by Cleveland and Las Vegas (1.4 percent each)

July values were up more than 10 percent year-year in three cities Las Vegas (13.7 percent), Seattle (12.1 percent) and San Francisco (10.8 percent).

While the weaker price growth could mean increased sales, fundamentals (including higher mortgage rates) still argue against an uptick in homebuying.

Hear Mark Lieberman this Friday on P.O.T.U.S. radio’s Morning Briefing, Sirius-XM 124, at 6:20 am Eastern Time. You can follow Mark Lieberman on Twitter at @foxeconomics.

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