First-time Unemployment insurance Claims Fall But Pandemic Claims Rise

By Mark Lieberman

Managing Director and Senior Economist

Highlights

  • There were 1,314,000 1st-time claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended July 4, 2020, a DROP of99,000from the previous week’s downwardly revised 1,413,000;
  • The four-week moving average of initial claims FELL 63,000 to 1,437,250;
  • Four-week moving average represented 0.92 percent of total employment, DOWNfrom 0.96 percent one week earlier;
  • The number of pandemic related claims jumped 1.5 million to 14,363143 for the week ended June 20 (the most recent reporting week).
  • The number of continued claims – individuals who had been collecting unemployment insurance — reported on a one-week lag, was 18,062,000 for the week ended June 27, DOWN 698,000 from the previous week’s DOWNWARDLY REVISED 18,760,000 (from 19,290,000)
  • The four-week moving average of continued claims FELL 636,000 to 19,085,000

Trends:

  • First-time claims FELL for the 14TH straight week since peaking at 6,687,000 at the beginning of April;
  • The four-week moving average of continued claims for unemployment insurance fell for the sixth straight week.

Data Source: Department of Labor

First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell for the 14th straight week the Department of Labor reported Thursday, but 18.062 million people remain unemployed, more than the 17,750,000 the Bureau of Statistics reported for June.

The key number to watch in this weekly report remain the number of continued claims which indicates how quickly the economy is recovering jobs.

And those collecting pandemic-related claims face the prospect of the additional $600 per week disappearing when the legislation authorizing it expires.

The positive note from this weekly report is the decline in new first-time claims but that could have been a function of the July 4 holiday which closed government offices on July 3.

You can hear Mark Lieberman’s analysis of the monthly Employment Situation report Augu8st 7 at 8:40 am on POTUS’ Morning Briefing, Sirius-XM 124. You can follow him on Twitter at foxeconomics.

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