Case Shiller Home Prices Index Continues Slower Year-Year Gains

By Mark Lieberman

Managing Director and Senior Economist

Highlights:

  • Case Shiller CoreLogic 20-city index ROSE in February for the first time in six months, adding 0.20 percent but the year-year index rose only 3.0 percent, down from an increase of 3.5 percent in January.
  • The 10-city index was UP 0.21 percent in February after falling for four straight months while the year-year growth was 2.6 percent, down from an increase of 3.2 percent in January;
  • The national index was up 0.42 percent after four consecutive months of decline, but the year-year index was up 4.0 percent compared with 4.2 percent in January;
  • The price index rose in 16 of the 20 cities surveyed in February compared January when only 8 cities showed increases;
  • Year-year the price index rose in only two of the 20 cities surveyed.

Trends:

  • The National Index set a record high for the 26th straight month;

Data Source: S&P Case Shiller/Core Logic

Home values snapped out of their doldrums in February, improving for the first time since late last year, but the positive movement doesn’t mean housing woes are gone.

Indeed, housing has been feeling the pinch since President Trump signed his tax changes in December 2017.In the 14 months since the law took effect, home prices, according to the Case-Shiller Corel Logic home price index, have risen a minuscule 0.32 percent. In the preceding 14 months, the average monthly increase was 0.47 percent. Included in the 14 months since the tax law, which sharply reduced the tax advantages of owning a home, took effect were four months in which home values fell, the longest such stretch since 2014.

In February, home values fell in the Northeast and Midwest, according to the monthly Case-Shiller report, while increasing in the South and the West. Growth in home values, measured by the Case-Shiller Core Logic Home Price Index moved sideways in October, barely increasing in the 10-city index but slipping in the 20-city metric. Nationally the index was essentially flat.

In the last year, the national index is down 10.3 percent.

Home values fell in four cities: Boston (0.4 percent, Minneapolis (0.4 percent), Cleveland (0.3 percent) and Charlotte (0.1 percent). The largest gains were in Denver (0.9 percent) San Diego (0.9 percent), Tampa (0.7 percent, San Francisco (0.6 percent) and Seattle (0.6 percent).

Prices rose in all 20 cities year-year led by Las Vegas (9.7 percent), Phoenix (6.7 percent), and Tampa (5.4 percent).

The National Association of Realtors reported the median price of an existing single-family home fell 2.6 percent or $7,300 in February. According to the Census Bureau, the median price of a new home rose 3.9 percent or $11.700 to 315,200 in February. The median price though was down $12,000 or 3.7 percent from February 2018 and the median price of an existing home was up 3.7 percent in February – slower than the 4.0 percent rise in January.

The Census Bureau reported last week, the nation’s homeownership rate slipped to to 64.2 percent in 1Q 2019 from 64.8 percent in 4Q 2018, the first quarterly decline since the beginning of 2017.

Hear Mark Lieberman this Friday on P.O.T.U.S. radio’s Morning Briefing, Sirius-XM 124, at 6:20 am Eastern Time. You can follow Mark Lieberman on Twitter at @foxeconomics.

0 Responses to “Case Shiller Home Prices Index Continues Slower Year-Year Gains”


Comments are currently closed.