1st-time Unemployment Insurance Resume Decline

By Mark Lieberman

Managing Director and Senior Economist

Highlights

  • 221,000 1st time claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended March 16, DOWN 9.000 from the prior week’s revised report (229,000 to 230,000);
  • The four-week moving average of first-time claims UP 1,000 to 225000;
  • Four week moving average 0.143 percent of employment, UNCHANGED from the previous week;
  • 1,750,000 continued claims – individuals who had been collecting unemployment insurance — reported on a one-week lag for the week ended March 9, DOWN 27,000 from the prior week’s revised report (1,776,000 to 1,777,000)
  • Four-week moving average of continued claims UP 6,000 to 1,772,500.

Trends:

  • First increase in four-week moving average of initial claims since mid-February;
  • The four-week moving average of continued claims rose for 18th time in 19 weeks

Data Source: Department of Labor

Image result for 1st time claims for unemployment insurance

With the temporary government shutdown far in the rear-view mirror, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell for the week ended March 16.

Federal government workers aren’t included in the tabulation of state unemployment insurance claims but employees of government subcontractors (private sector) are. The data suggest those employers may have fully re-stocked.

The largest single state decrease in new claims claim in New York (for the week ended March 9) with fewer layoffs in the transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food service, and educational service industries First-time claims for unemployment insurance fell 16,497 in New York.

The national data suggest yet a further decline in the number of persons unemployed and perhaps in the unemployment rate when the Employment Situation report for March is released April 5. The four-week moving average of first-time claims fell 11,000 from mid-February to mid-March, the largest mid-month to mid-month drop since last May when the four-week moving average fell 18,000 and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in April as the number of persons unemployed fell 207,000.

The four-week moving average of first time claims and the unemployment rate don’t always however move in lockstep: In January when the four-week moving average fell 2,250 from mid-December to mid-January, the unemployment rate increased from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent. Individual unemployed for fewer than five weeks typically make up about 40 percent of total unemployment.

You can hear Mark Lieberman tomorrow and every Friday at 6:20 am on the Morning Briefing on P.O.T.U.S. radio @sxmpotus, Sirius-XM 124.

0 Responses to “1st-time Unemployment Insurance Resume Decline”


Comments are currently closed.